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日本保守派政治家高市早苗贏得自民黨總裁選舉,成為該黨的第一位女性總裁,也很可能將成為日本首位女性首相。有分析人士擔心,其強硬外交立場或將激化與中國及韓國的關係。
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不過,林由香話鋒一轉:「目前正值自民黨內局勢艱難之際,我認為她可能會把重點放在黨內團結上,並在外交政策上謹慎行事,避免採取過於保守或強硬的立場。」
高市的政治立場屬於保守強硬派。強硬主張維持父系男子的皇位繼承制,並計畫以「早苗經濟學」之名,繼承安倍經濟學的積極財政與貨幣寬鬆政策。為了獲得安倍擁護者的支持,她在去年的自民黨總裁選舉中曾公開承諾「即使當上首相,也會去參拜靖國神社」,但此次表現出了模棱兩可的態度。她尊敬的人物,是英國前首相柴契爾夫人。
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近年來,日本社會在安全保障、歷史認知、對外政策等領域呈現出明顯的右傾化傾向。隨着國際局勢的緊張、國內經濟增長乏力和人口老齡化問題的加劇,日本選民愈發傾向於支持強調“國家安全”“自主防衛”“傳統價值”的保守政治力量,高市早苗正是在這樣的背景下崛起。繼參議院選舉後,自民黨總裁候選人相繼在選戰中拿外國人說事,要求“嚴控外國人”,而高市早苗屬於這方面的急先鋒。在社交媒體的任意性輿論導向橫行的今天,言論的偏激性、煽動性比真實性和公平性更能迎合大眾的口味,而高市早苗以鮮明的保守立場、強硬的言辭、維護大和民族傳統、以偏蓋全的排外言論及主張修憲的政治姿態贏得了黨內保守勢力及部分民眾的支持。
高市當天表示:「這開創了自民黨的新時代。將讓我黨成為把許多人的不安變為希望的政黨。」
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高市在經濟上主張延續「安倍經濟學」路線——通過積極財政支出與寬松貨幣政策刺激增長,並多次批評日本央行的加息舉措。
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總之高市早苗的政治立場明顯偏右,她在歷史認知與國家安全問題上態度強硬,然而,歷史經驗表明,日本首相在上任後往往會在現實外交壓力下調整立場。正如安倍晉三在第二任期內逐漸從“修憲先鋒”、“保守的歷史觀”轉向務實外交,推進與中韓的友好關係一樣,高市早苗在就任後,預計也將暫時擱置部分意識形態等議題,以維持與中韓等近鄰國家的基本關係穩定,從她上面的一些發言來看,已經表現出了一定的靈活性。
日本執政黨自民黨總裁選舉結果出爐,前經濟安全保障大臣高市早苗勝出,有望成為日本首位女首相。消息一出,台灣在第一時祝賀,關於她過往的言論也引起了關注,像是曾多次於公開場合中表示「台灣有事即日本有事」,挺台立場鮮明。